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Author Topic: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)  (Read 5201 times)

jjreason

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Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« on: March 14, 2020, 09:01:20 PM »

Not to play into the insanity, but I wanted to share this resource in case anyone wants another source to confirm information about the virus, travel advisories, steps to take if you feel sick, etc. Stay healthy, troopers.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html?utm_campaign=not-applicable&utm_medium=vanity-url&utm_source=canada-ca_coronavirus
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2020, 11:14:18 PM »

Tonight's CTV W5 interviewed a few experts.  Maybe the most worrying tidbit?  That some of these experts think that after one year, 60% of the world's population will have been infected by the virus.

And with that good news, I present this funny image that was posted on twitter earlier in the day:





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bob

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2020, 03:04:07 AM »


 what a crazy situation. im worried cause my moms 75 and not in the greatest health. for me and most of us if u get it its not that bad really and most are ok.

 in a couple weeks or so will know how its looking. with so much being shut down it might stop it in tracks more and wont be so bad. still, ive never seen anything like this before. be well for sure!
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Eradicator

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2020, 03:16:23 PM »

I hope everyone is doing well. MTFBWY.

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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2020, 01:14:37 PM »

Here is a great chart that compares 2 countries... one which did a really bad job at handling the crisis (Italy) and one which has done a fairly great job (S. Korea). The main difference, according to what I heard on CBC's show on Sunday is the good countries are doing lots of testing, testing, and more testing.  They identify people who definitely have COVID-19 as early as possible and get them into isolation fast. 

We want Canada to be like S. Korea or Taiwan... and avoid becoming like Iran, France, and Italy.  There was a quick segment on Sunday that showed an Italian man flipping through his daily newspaper and he showed how it was page-after-page (after page) of obituaries... just dozens upon dozens of dead people being listed. 



Also worth reading:

Why Italy was hit so hard and so fast by COVID-19

https://www.cbc.ca/news/why-italy-was-hit-so-hard-and-so-fast-by-covid-19-1.5498650?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

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Eradicator

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2020, 02:48:44 PM »

I don't think there is a lot of testing going on in Canada. It sounds like their message is to stay at home and avoid going out.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2020, 06:16:33 PM »

Social distancing is the most important step to reducing the spread of the virus, but there is definitely a good amount of testing happening.  To keep our supply of testing resources available in case the situation gets worse, they only test people (like Trudeau's wife) with more obvious signs of having it. 

Currently, according to tonight's newscast, 8464 people have already been tested just in Ontario alone, and have tested negative (whew!) for the virus. At the same time, we have 177 people tested and confirmed to have the virus.



So long as people keep their distance from one another, and avoid touching their hands to their faces (eyes, mouth) we can keep this thing from spreading.  An expert said that you get these big spikes in infected because one person who goes to a party or other gathering, has the virus, and suddenly 7 people at the same gathering now catch the virus too.   If those 7 people don't get tested soon enough (or just don't isolate themselves quickly) they'll pass it on at another gathering or to family members. 

While the news has mostly talked about the elderly being the most likely to die from the virus since the virus interacts with their pre-existing health problems, there have been some mysterious cases in S. Korea where young people (I believe this is referring to people in their 30s) die very quickly from the virus too.  And the scary thing is that doctors have absolutely no clue at this time, why those people died.

edit: and now let's end this with some humor.  Here is one of the more popular trending memes about the corona virus:



« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 09:25:35 PM by napseeker »
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Ookk

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2020, 08:30:55 PM »

Take care of yourselves and your loved ones, folks. Star Wars collecting is SERIOUS BUSINESS sometimes in terms of our gripes about Hasbro's questionable decisions and availability of certain figures, but in the grand scheme of things it's our health and communities that matter most. 

I wish everyone well!
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Eradicator

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2020, 09:39:25 AM »

One thing is for sure, we will all have more time to play in our toy rooms.
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brianakarobin

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2020, 12:59:31 PM »

Based on the measures happening across Canada, I am hopeful the 60% number will me a massive overestimate. There has been an extremely sharp decline in new cases and deaths in China, and you already mentioned some other places who went about things the right way. I am hoping by late Spring we will be through this, and we will be looking at a much smaller number of total cases. However, for that to happen, people need to listen and STAY HOME unless you really need to. It’s not just about you - it is about everyone else you could infect unknowingly if you get it.

napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2020, 05:34:11 PM »

I did some math based on that computer model estimate of 60% of the world becoming infected after 1 year.  That model also considers that of those infected, 3.4% will die from the virus.  And if I remember correctly, the CTV W5 special said that 20% would end up with severe respiratory complications (critical).  Hopefully I calculated this correctly, please feel free to correct me if I did not:

7 billion people * 0.6 = 4.2 billion infected (4,200 million)

3.4% would mean 142.8 million dead.

The 20% who would end up in critical respiratory distress would be 840 million.
  There is just no way there are enough ventilators / respirators at the hospitals to help this kind of massive number of patients.

Fun comparison: I looked up how many people died during the Black Death (plague) and it is estimated in the range of 25 million to 50 million.   So, uhm, yeah...

I encourage people to watch the CBC interview with David Fisman, who is the expert that I mentioned who looked genuinely scared by the implications of this virus spreading like wildfire across the world.  Fisman  is a Canadian infectious disease expert (professor) from University of Toronto, so he knows what he's talking about.  If he's afraid, then I'm afraid. 

Just skip to the 6min52 seconds (the government rep that Wendy speaks to at the beginning of the segment is NOT reassuring no matter how pleasant she sounds). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcZrzruaEy4

Fisman refers to Canada being in the "golden time" which is that period where, by using social distancing/isolation and good sanitary practices, we can flatten the curve of infection and avoid the kind of exponential infection seen in Italy that has killed more than two thousand of its citizens.

edit: I found the CTV W5 story from this past weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lViaVZ_s8MY

Go to the 6min45 second where you will hear about the growing consensus that the vast majority of the people in the world will become infected (with one model calculating that to be 60%), and 20% being in critical condition.

And if no one has heard yet, Idris Elba tested positive for COVID-19.  If black-James-Bond can catch it, so can any of us!  (insert weak, unconvincing laughter)

edit: Canada's current rate of infection, graph was shown on tonight's Global National:



Hardly a flat curve at the moment, sadly, but also not quite exponential either.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 10:14:00 PM by napseeker »
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2020, 10:30:24 PM »

On twitter, Jane Philpott posted this graph of our country's infection rate.  It is a relief, if you live in Ontario, that our curve IS flattening.  But if you live in Vancouver, the curve is going exponential.





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JediPatrick

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2020, 09:46:24 AM »

Sadly, we haven't seen nothing yet. The worse has yet to come.

In Quebec, the only people who were diagnosed with the virus are people who came back from a trip abroad to an affected area of the World. These people are sick, but they have probably infected others between the time of their arrival and the time they were diagnosed. The virus can stay within your body for 2 weeks, with or without symptoms.

This means we're about to face the second phase of the contagion: the phase were people who got infected by one single person who came back from a trip with a virus will start developing symptoms or not.

I foresee a steep rise of the contagion within the next week or so. Pretty much everywhere in Canada. Because the quarantined measures were taken too late (no borders were closed prior to... TODAY) and not taken seriously enough (I see a LOT of people wandering shopping malls and groceries stores... old folks and kids SHOULD STAY INDOORS). Even though our governments were quicker to react than in Europe, it's too little and too late. Unless you force people to stick indoors for at least 1-2 months...

So it may just be the beginning of a very chaotic period... sadly. Everyone hang in there... it's gonna be a long and though ride... :(
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 09:48:18 AM by JediPatrick »
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"C'est lorsque nous croyons savoir quelque chose qu'il faut justement réfléchir un peu plus profondément." / "The beginning of knowledge is the discovery of something we do not understand."

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2020, 10:48:50 AM »

Sadly, we haven't seen nothing yet. The worse has yet to come.

In Quebec, the only people who were diagnosed with the virus are people who came back from a trip abroad to an affected area of the World. These people are sick, but they have probably infected others between the time of their arrival and the time they were diagnosed. The virus can stay within your body for 2 weeks, with or without symptoms.

This means we're about to face the second phase of the contagion: the phase were people who got infected by one single person who came back from a trip with a virus will start developing symptoms or not.

I foresee a steep rise of the contagion within the next week or so. Pretty much everywhere in Canada. Because the quarantined measures were taken too late (no borders were closed prior to... TODAY) and not taken seriously enough (I see a LOT of people wandering shopping malls and groceries stores... old folks and kids SHOULD STAY INDOORS). Even though our governments were quicker to react than in Europe, it's too little and too late. Unless you force people to stick indoors for at least 1-2 months...

So it may just be the beginning of a very chaotic period... sadly. Everyone hang in there... it's gonna be a long and though ride... :(

I agree. I think there are still too many people wandering around. We are just at the beginning. We also have to keep in mind that the reported cases are probably a small fraction of the actual number of people who get it. 60% may even be a low estimate because not everyone is getting tested. Either way we need to practice our social distancing and keep washing your hands.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2020, 10:59:03 AM »

On the news last night, they referred to this stage merely as "the end of the beginning" which means there's more to come.  We could be living like this until August (but probably even way longer than that).

Oh and it sure isn't fun being an asian man right now. I was coming home on the bus yesterday and inadvertently let out a quick cough (dry throat, not due to any illness).  The lady standing in front of me quickly turned her head in my direction and just stared straight at me, unblinking, for a good 25 seconds. I think she was trying to see if I was sick or not.  She got off the bus 2 stops later.

BTW, here are more charts from the local TV news that will hopefully impress upon folks just how important testing is in flattening the infection rate.  I already mentioned how South Korea has been the gold standard in fighting off the infection by heavy testing, contrasted with Italy... and then you have the bungled mess in the USA (where a certain president spent weeks denying the problem, then suddenly yesterday said, and I quote him exactly: "This is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."  (you sir, are a true MORON).



Note the very low rate of testing being done in the US... but they will undoubtedly ramp it up far more in the coming weeks since orange-hair has finally recognized there's a problem. To quote an American on twitter:

Quote
@jaketapper
Many of you already know this, but the spread of COVID19 in the US has been mirroring that of the spread in Italy, except we're about 10 days behind them.

Now how is Canada doing in its testing?  Better than the US obviously, but nowhere at S. Korea levels, and we're running out of the swabs needed to get throat/mouth samples from patients...



As well, the news reports that in a number of provinces, health care workers don't have enough of the gowns and facemasks they need to do their jobs because some fellow workers are stealing them to take home (I guess to protect their own families?  To sell on the secondary market? who knows).

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