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Author Topic: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)  (Read 9426 times)

bishop

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2020, 01:42:46 PM »

Thanks for sharing the info. I found in this thread a great deal of information that was relevant for understanding what is happening.

Be safe, keep social distance and browse snowtroopers.ca ;)
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2020, 01:24:19 AM »

My notes from tonight's Global National segment on COVID-19:

- health experts say that COVID-19 isn't airborne but is instead spread through droplets that are created when you cough or sneeze, which then land on different surfaces. 

A recent report found that it can survive on surfaces up to several days; it can survive on cardboard for up to 24 hours. On plastic for 2-3 days. So if someone coughed on or near the plastic, and another person comes along the next day or two and touches it, then touches their eyes, they will be infected.

- it is less likely to survive on porous surfaces like clothing and pet fur.

- conservative estimates say that 30% of Canadians will get COVID-19, and of that 1% will die. That translates to 114,000 Canadians are expected to DIE this year. (NOTE: as of today, March 19th, 12 Canadians have died)

My notes from other news broadcasts:
- Ontario is suspending renewals for health cards, drivers licenses, and stopping evictions

- a 2nd death has happened in Ontario due to the virus. What is troubling is that it is not known how the 51-year old man contracted the virus. It was not through the usual way that people get infected (he had not travelled anywhere, nor did he come into contact with any known infected person). This suggests that in his area, there must be someone who is infected and may be an unwitting carrier of the virus.

- there are 43 new Ontario cases today (26 of the new cases are in Toronto)

- Wuhan, China's COVID19 epicenter, reports no new confirmed cases for the first time since the outbreak

- Italy continues to be a nightmare; Italy had 427 new deaths overnight, and now has more than 3400 deaths in total; the death toll has overtaken China's death count (things are worse for Italy when you realize that China's population is 23 times greater than Italy). Italy had more than 900 deaths in just 2 days. The country is home to more than half the world's positive virus cases. More and more of their healthcare workers are getting sick.

- a visiting chinese Red Cross official warned Italy that it needs to get even tougher, that people are still moving around, saying that all economic activity must stop and people go into quarantine.

- cases in New York City skyrocketed today to more than 3600 confirmed cases, 5 times higher than Canada; the politician in New York described it as "feeling like I have a belt around my lungs so I can't take too deep of a breath."
- a US family was hard hit by COVID-19 when a daughter died, then the son died 5 days later, then the mother died only hours after the son.
- 2 members of US congress have tested positive

Global National also mentioned that the USA continues on a trajectory of infection that matches Italy.  California has a model that estimates 25 million of their residents would become infected (I forget what the timeline for that would be, whether those millions would be infected after 1 year or 1 month).

EDIT: this article may anger people. At the same time that a Republican businessman was telling the public that everything was under control regarding the virus, he was telling insiders at an exclusive luncheon event that the virus situation was actually much worse:

Quote
According to the NPR report, Burr told attendees of the luncheon held at the Capitol Hill Club: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history ... It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”

He warned that companies might have to curtail their employees’ travel, that schools could close and that the military might be mobilized to compensate for overwhelmed hospitals.

The luncheon was organized by the Tar Heel Circle, a club for businesses and organizations in North Carolina that are charged up to $10,000 for membership and are promised “interaction with top leaders and staff from Congress, the administration, and the private sector.”

https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness


The same Republican also sold off millions in stock way before the stock market crash, since he had access to confidential reports about the spread of the virus:

Quote
After assuring the public about the government's coronavirus preparedness, Senate Intel chair Richard Burr, in one day, sold off up to $1.6 million is stock. A week later, the market began its fall. His committee was receiving daily briefings.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 04:01:34 AM by napseeker »
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Ookk

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2020, 08:26:26 AM »

Hi guys ..... My wife, son and I are here in Florida. My daughter is out in BC, but we are flying her home on Tuesday.  We have been here in Florida for 2.5 weeks.  At the beach people are not practicing social distancing.   This includes all age groups young and old.  The Clearwater attitude is not just at Clearwater.  We have been staying away from people and using objects to open doors and push buttons.  Our extended outside of country health care will be cut off March 22nd.   We decided the best way to get home was to rent a van and get it with a drop off in Canada.   This way we avoid airports and grouping of people.    Once we start driving we plan to stop no more than one evening in a hotel, but if my wife and I think we can do it safely we will keep on driving. We have just bought a YETI to bring home as much food as we can.  We are not sure if the food will be taken at the border, but we are trying to have some food for when we get home. We have been hearing things can be hard to come by at home.   I hope all you guys are safe at home, looking forward to being back in Canada as soon as possible.

Hey CanadianJedi,

A scary situation for sure.  It sounds like you're doing your best in a very tough situation to take care of yourself and your family.  I hope that your journey is a swift and safe one and that you're home soon.  The grocery stores aren't as bad as they were, though I haven't been out in a couple of days now.  If your food is taken at the border, consider ordering online for home delivery (if that's an option) or seeing if you have a neighbour who can buy something and drop it at the door.  I'm not sure where you are (Ontario?), but if you're close by me I can see about picking stuff up for you to drop at the doorstep.  Let me know either here or via a message on this site.

Thinking of you; may the force be with you.

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2020, 09:24:51 AM »

Superstore is offering free pickup and reduced delivery.   

Amazon.ca can also be a source for dry goods like cereal and pasta.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2020, 10:10:54 PM »

Notes from the news for Fri Mar 20 2020:

- 627 people died in Italy in the last 24 hours, this brings the total number of deaths to 4032
- the total number of deaths in Spain exceeded 1000 today; it is the 4th country to report more than 1000 dead.

- an expert warns that this coming weekend is a critical time for Canadians to practice social distancing because thousands are going to be returning from March Break vacation in the US, some of whom may be carrying the virus.

- Toronto mayor Tory, Doug Ford and others are criticizing EB Games for not shutting down (since it is a non-essential service) and instead going ahead with a videogame release day (which then leads to gamers lining up in close proximity outside EB's doors, to get their "Animal Crossing" and "Doom" games). Ford reminded young people to practice social distancing and that lineups such as this is what causes the virus to spread.

- the governor of California is ordering all 40 million of its residents to stay home, fearing that more than half of its population could get infected if the state isn't able to curb the rise of cases. Illinois has announced a similar order.

- the Chinese government has now exonerated the doctor who tried to warn the world about the corona virus but had been given a reprimand (which included a threat of arrest) if he didn't recant his warnings. That doctor later died of the disease. China has issued a solemn apology to the man's family.

- Wuhan has announced that it has no new cases of the virus for two days in a row.  However, Hong Kong has seen its largest daily increase since the outbreak started, most of their cases due to residents returning from other countries (including skiers who had visited Whistler in British Columbia)

- China still leads the world with the total number of infected at 81,000 BUT at least 71,000 of them have recovered.

- as of today, there are more than 260,000 cases around the world and around 11,000 deaths worldwide.
- there are now over 1000 confirmed cases in Canada (5 of which have recovered); there were 50 new cases in one day in Ontario, the largest increase we've seen so far in this province.
- there are now over 19,000 confirmed cases in the USA, and 249 deaths; the country's infection rate is continuing to trend similar to Italy's. The US's number of cases effectively doubled overnight. Testing is still too hard to access.

- Canada had its first confirmed case back on Jan 25th, 8 weeks ago, to 1087 as of today. From a global view, it took 3 months to reach the first 100,000 (from Dec 10 to Mar 6) but only 12 days to reach the next 100,000 (from Mar 6 to Mar 18th).

- it is likely that Canada will see its greatest economic contraction since the 1930s due to so many workers being sent home. This week alone, there were 500,000 unemployment insurance applications; by comparison just 27,000 filed for EI this week last year.
- Canada's national unemployment rate was 5.6% last month, it is easily on its way to 8% now and may climb higher.
- Goldman Sachs is warning that the US economy could shrink an astonishing 24% in the second quarter

- Walmart Canada is hiring 10,000 new employees immediately to meet a surge in demand in stores and distribution centers. The jobs range from sales associates, bakery workers, cashiers, and overnight workers.

- Sobeys is installing plastic shields (plexiglass screens) to protect its cashiers at the checkouts; employees are being told to also wash their hands every 15 minutes.
- Loblaws is reducing their open hours so they can give employees more time to sanitize the stores

- there are worries that while Ontario is testing 2000 people per day, and aiming to increase that to 5000 per day, one expert says we should be testing 60,000 people per day. So far Toronto has only tested 60,000 people in total. Toronto health officials have had to leave some presumtive cases untested due to a limited number of swab kits needed to do the tests (the swabs are ironically enough made in north Italy).  Those people who still need to be tested can inadvertantly spread the virus. The more people that can be tested, the more officials can pinpoint the spread of the virus and isolate those areas to control the spread.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2020, 03:21:40 AM »

Your Saturday Mar 21st edition of Nappy's notes from the news...

- CTV News: the USA now has the fastest growth rate for confirmed cases than anywhere else in the world. The US has more than 24,000 confirmed cases of people infected by the virus and over 300 deaths. New York alone has more than 11,000 infected people.
- New Jersey opened up its first drive-in testing site for the corona virus, they ran out of test kits after only 35 minutes.

- more than 80 million Americans now ordered to stay home. New York state has been declared a federal disaster area, having the highest number of cases in the US. Officials are scrambling as overrun hospitals are running out of life-saving equipment such as face masks, Governor Andrew Cuomo saying: "We are literally scouring the globe looking for medical supplies."  A surgeon in California said "We are at war with no ammo."

- Washington State has the highest death toll in America, officials are also saying that they will soon have to make life-or-death decisions, deciding who lives or dies due to a shortage of ventilators.

- for the first time, the US gov has extended the deadline to file taxes by 90 days
- over 2 million Americans are expected to file for unemployment insurance benefits by mid-week. It will be the largest weekly increase in history.

- there are now 1279 confirmed cases in Canada, and 20 deaths. BC has taken the lead in positive cases at 424, with Ontario second at 377. And for the first time, a positive case in the Northwest Territories. Almost 60 new cases confirmed in Ontario today bring the total to 377, and the total number of cases in Toronto now almost 200.

- the border between US and Canada is now officially closed down for non-essential travel
- Ontario officials warn that anyone who tested positive and refuses to go into self-isolation will face fines up to $100,000 and up to 1 year in jail.

- Walmart reducing hours to 8am to 8pm.
- Loblaws and Metro employees will get an extra $2/hr raise.

- in Quebec, police have arrested a woman who had tested positive for the virus, because she had gone outside for a walk in her neighbourhood, breaking her quarantine. The woman is now in hospital, and may face charges.

- Wuhan again reporting no new cases for a 3rd straight day in a row; this has led some citizens to go outside; for some people this is their first time being outside in weeks.

- Italy, which is the hardest hit country in the world, 793 people died within the last 24 hours, pushing the total deaths over 4800 and 50,000 confirmed to be infected; people are no longer allowed to exercise outdoors. Police are using roadblocks in a number of cities to ensure people are not on the streets unless necessary.

- Spain, which is the 3rd hardest hit country in the world, seems to be on the same trajectory, the crisis just a few days behind Italy. Spain recorded over 5000(!) new cases in just 24 hours, for a total of 24,900 with 1326 deaths (there were 1000 deaths on Friday).
- there are fears that France, Germany, and the UK may not be far behind Italy and Spain.

- Iran's death toll reaches over 1500 dead. More than 20,000 have tested positive. Pleas by the government for people to stay home... have been  mostly ignored.

- a beach in Australia has been shut down temporarily; officials had no choice but to close it down after thousands of people flocked there to enjoy the sun and water in recent days, ignoring the call for social distancing.

EDIT: you can use this website to track the statistics about the pandemic. I note that since I originally posted my news recap, the USA has now risen to become the country with the 3rd highest number of cases, displacing Spain which had been the 3rd.  Sadly, this does track correctly with the US becoming more and more like Italy...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/




« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 05:16:35 AM by napseeker »
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jjreason

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2020, 08:29:07 AM »

I'm doing my best to stay home - and NOT eat all my bunker food sooner than I need to. The struggle is real.  :speechless-smiley-004:    I'd like to keep grocery trips to once per week if possible.

My folks on the other hand, at 75, are happy to engage in their fairly standard daily routine of going to the grocery store. I can't convince them otherwise.  :mad0218:
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Eradicator

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2020, 10:23:28 AM »

Thankfully my parents are staying home and not going out. My brother dropped off groceries to them the other day. This virus is really scary for those of advanced age.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2020, 11:58:10 AM »

My mother has repeatedly ignored my warnings not to go out. I've told her that her age group is greatest at risk, but nope. What is it with old people...?

Nappy's notes from the news for Sun Mar 22 2020:

- there are 335,974 positive cases over the world
- total number of worldwide deaths now risen to 14,641
- Italy has 59,138 confirmed cases
- Spain has 28,768 confirmed cases
- France has 14,485 confirmed cases

- all businesses in Italy have been ordered to shut down, except groceries and pharmacies, until at least Apr 3rd. Italy reported another new 651 deaths in the last 24 hours, pushing the total number of deaths to over 5400. Almost 10% of Italy's health care workers were sidelined due to being infected by the virus, at a time when every healthcare worker is needed.
- Italy now saying that it likely had its first case back in November, but back then deaths were attributed to pneumonia rather than the virus.
- From twitter: Italian mayors and regional presidents LOSING IT at people violating quarantine. "I hear you wanna throw graduation parties. I'm gonna send the police over. With flamethrowers."
- Australia is shutting down all non-essential services, as the number of infected rise rapidly. Schools will stay open but parents are allowed to keep kids at home. More than 1300 have tested positive, with 7 deaths.

- the US now has the 3rd highest number of confirmed cases in the world, only Italy and China have more. The US has 32,000+ cases and 400 deaths. More than half of the deaths occurred in just 2 states: New York and Washington, both states have been declared as disaster areas. 1 in 4 Americans have been ordered to stay home as 8 states are now in lockdown.

- New York has reported 63 deaths so far; it is projected that in a state of 20 million people, 40 to 80% could become infected.
- New York and California have been forced to limit tests so that they are only given to the most ill and to healthcare workers, due to a shortage of test kits. The mayor of New York continues to plead to Donald Trump to start acting quickly, to invoke the Defense Production Act, which would create more supplies including ventilators and to mobilize the military to build makeshift hospitals.  US officials in states with the highest deaths warn they will run out of medical supplies, including ventilators, by early April. Nurses and doctors are fearful for their own lives.
- empty stores in downtown Manhattan are boarding up their doors and windows to prevent looters.

- 21 people in Canada have now died; politicians are astounded that people are still going to house parties and gathering together on the beach to enjoy the sun.
- Team Canada has announced that they will not be participating in the Tokyo summer Olympics; the WHO is suggesting that the games be postponed for one year.
- Quebec has shut down shopping malls
- Canada now has 1400+ cases:
  BC: 424  (on Mar 18th, BC had 231)
  ON: 424  (on Mar 18th, ON had 212)
  AB: 259  (was 97)
  QC: 219  (was only 94 on Mar 18th)
  SK: 44  (was only 16 on Mar 18th)
  NS: 28  (was 15 on Mar 18th)
  MB: 19  (12)
  NB: 17  (11)
  NL: 9   (3)
  PEI: 3  (1)
  NWT: 1  (0)

- Toronto has its first fatality, the man had returned home from the UK, he'd been tested at a Toronto hospital and had been self-isolated at home before going to the hospital on Mar 14th. He died yesterday.
- a woman in her 70s in York Region has also died, she had returned from Los Angeles
- 5 deaths have now happened in Ontario
- Ontario will provide free child care for health professionals

- South Korea is 2x the size of Canada and at their peak, Korea conducted 10,000 tests per day (vs 2000 per day right now for Canada). Taking the test itself is quite fast since it's a nasal swab, but the results can take several hours to days to process. Ontario has about 8000 cases currently under investigation.

- Colombia records its first death: a taxi driver who had been driving tourists from Italy, and had some underlying health problems.

- Sobeys looking to hire more staff to meet demand for groceries, is giving extra pay to existing staff
- funeral homes allowing the funeral service to be live-streamed to avoid gatherings of people; arrangements for the funeral are now encouraged to be done over the phone instead of in person
- the scramble for face masks has driven prices up; a face mask used to cost 85cents USD, now sells for $7USD.

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JediPatrick

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2020, 01:10:02 PM »

My mother has repeatedly ignored my warnings not to go out. I've told her that her age group is greatest at risk, but nope. What is it with old people...?

Just tell her that the current applicable law in Canada is the Quarantine Act, put in place in 2005 for SRAS. It's still perfectly valid and in function today.

Here are the penalties if a person is viewed responsible for the death of other people based on this quarantine law:

*****
67 (1) Every person is guilty of an offence if they cause a risk of imminent death or serious bodily harm to another person while wilfully or recklessly contravening this Act or the regulations.

(2) Every person who commits an offence under subsection (1) is liable

(a) on conviction on indictment, to a fine of not more than $1,000,000 or to imprisonment for a term of not more than three years, or to both; and

(b) on summary conviction, to a fine of not more than $300,000 or to imprisonment for a term of not more than six months, or to both.

*****
Basically HUGE fees and PRISON.

The Canadian Health Minister has told yesterday that she would reinforce this for people coming back from travel abroad, but she could enforce it for everyone if necessary.

Tell that to your mother. She'll stick indoors.
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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2020, 07:36:36 PM »

Glad you made it home okay. Stay healthy.
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #26 on: March 24, 2020, 09:52:28 AM »

@JP: I suspect that she goes out (to get groceries and medicine, not for socializing or anything non-essential) to protect ME from going out. She basically leaves hours after I tell her that I will go pick up any groceries or medication that she needs... which could prompt her to do it first before I do it for her.  I'd probably do the same for my kid if they offered to take on my chores.

And now a summary of the news for Mon Mar 23 2020:

- the number of worldwide deaths now totals at 16,508 and total infected cases are at 378,679; 100,985 have recovered.
- Justin Trudeau giving a more stern warning to young people to stay home and stop gathering together: "Enough is enough. Go home and stay home."
- the WHO pointed out that the pandemic is accelerating: it took 67 days from the 1st reported case to reach 100,000 cases. But only 11 days to reach 200,000 cases, and only 4 days to reach 300,000 cases.

- almost 44,000 cases and 557 deaths in the USA. Half of those 44,000 cases are in New York state.
- the National Guard was called into New York to convert the convention center into a massive field hospital
- Louisiana, where more than 1 million tourists celebrated Mardi Gras last month, is reporting the fastest-growing number of confirmed cases in the world, according to local doctors
- the US stock market (DOW) on pace for its worst month ever since December 1931, down 37%
- more than 100 people died from the virus in the US today alone, yet Trump is intent on lifting any restrictions to get people back to work, perhaps as soon as in one week, citing that he doesn't want the "cure" to be worse than the problem.

- former Hollywood producer, Harvey Weinstein, has tested positive for the virus; he is now in isolation while in prison.

- Italy's death toll now over 6000, with 460 new deaths overnight, and more than 63,000 confirmed cases; all businesses in the country now must close until Apr 3rd except those essential to the supply chain.
- in some Italian hospitals, 25% of the staff have been infected and some doctors have died.

- the UK is to undergo the biggest lockdown in its history, restricting when people can leave their homes (i.e. only to buy groceries, go for a walk, and medical visits) and giving police special powers to locate and arrest people after it was found that too many people were ignoring social distance guidelines e.g. people were still crowding onto trains and parks were still packed, even though cases in the UK have surged to over 7000 and 55 people died there today. The UK is said to be about 2 weeks behind Italy.
- New Zealand will enter a month-long lockdown; every household to go into self-isolation starting on Wed night.

- there were no traders working on the floor of the New York stock exchange today, all traders were working from home.
- airline Air Transat lays off 70% of its workforce (incl all flight crews) after grounding its fleet
- Cineplex has now laid off thousands of part-time workers, while full-time employees and executives will get a pay cut
- Loblaws looking to hire temporary workers to meet the huge demand, and to give its current workers a break
- Labatts shifting production from beer to making hand sanitizer
- there are worries that people are hoarding medication (and insulin, inhalers, etc) and pharmacies are considering limiting prescription refills to only 30 days (whereas some people are asking for 6-months worth of refills).

- Ontario declaring an official state of emergency today, allowing it to force all non-essential stores/services to shut down for 2 weeks starting on Wednesday. The LCBO will be staying open.
- a big spike of 200 new cases in Quebec, bringing the new total to 628

- there are now 24 deaths in all of Canada
- Canada now has 2000+ cases:
  BC: 472
  ON: 503
  AB: 301
  QC: 628

- Global TV weatherman Anthony Farnell has tested positive with COVID-19 back on March 13th. He has recovered from his symptoms. He thinks he may have contracted it during a ski trip in Austria. There were people from all over the world at the ski resort.

Once back in Toronto, he felt ill and took 2 days off. Then the symptoms went away and he got better within a week. He felt body aches (he initially blamed it on skiing so much for 6 days) then came a fever. It went away, and then it all came back again. He lost his sense of smell, his taste, got shortness of breath. That's when he called to find out if he should be tested.  Even though his doctor and teleHealth told him his chances of contracting the virus was slim, he went in and got tested anyway and while the test was uncomfortable, he found out 2 days later that yes he did have the virus.  Toronto public health has been checking in on him daily, and he says he hasn't had any symptoms in 10 days.
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old man ben

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #27 on: March 24, 2020, 07:38:11 PM »

The biggest difference I would think is the ten or twelve million people squeezed onto Manhattan Island.
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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #28 on: March 24, 2020, 09:43:47 PM »

ONTARIO & BC vs. New York State:

14.47 million + 5.07 million = 19.54 million vs. New York at 19.54 million

same population.

Number of cases:

Ontario & BC: 1,060               
       

New York: 25,677

Deaths:

Ontario & BC : 20

New York:  210

Did you make it home yet CJ ?

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #29 on: March 24, 2020, 09:50:52 PM »

It continues to boggle my mind that Italy will likely reach over 10,000 dead before this virus subsides.  In some sense, an invisible virus being the cause almost understates the magnitude of the horror. 

Replace virus with "serial killer" or "mass shooter" and it would seem almost ridiculous for one thing to cause so much death in modern times.  "Breaking News: Serial killer kills 6,000 people in Italy over a few weeks."


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