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June 04, 2020, 10:53:33 PM

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Author Topic: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)  (Read 3893 times)

napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #45 on: April 01, 2020, 02:49:23 AM »

Tue Mar 31 2020:
- there are now over 857,000 positive cases around the world; the US has the world's most cases (20% of all cases in the world belong to the US) at 180,000 cases. More Americans have now died from the virus than died in the 911
attacks.

- the US reported over 800 new deaths today, the highest single-day surge so far. That brings the death toll to 4000 and surpassing China's total deaths; only last Thursday the US death total was 1000 (that means in only 5 days, the death count quadrupled!). There are 180,000 cases in the US.
- Los Angeles is setting up a RV park for people who have nowhere to self-isolate
- New York now has 76,000 positive cases. The governor of New York said that the states are all bidding for the same ventilators: "It's like being on eBay, with 50 other states, bidding on a ventilator."
- 1200 members of the New York police force are confirmed to have the virus. 10,000 New Yorkers tested positive in the last 24 hours.
- a US governor is pleading for more help for their exhausted healthcare workers: "If you are a medical school student, if you are a nursing school student, we need you."
- Louisiana confirmed 1200 new cases in just one day (a 30% jump)
- at sea, 4000 American sailors are trapped onboard an aircraft carrier, where 200 have tested positive
- the computer models predict 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in a best-case scenario (where people do exercise isolation and social distancing) for the USA. 2200 deaths per day are expected when this infection reaches its peak.

- in Canada there are now 8591 cases, 95 deaths in total
- Canada will spend $2 billion to buy personal protective equipment to help frontline healthcare workers

- Quebec is again seeing a big jump in new cases, up 732 new cases in 24hrs, so it now has 4162 positive cases, the most in the country

- Ontario reports 260 new cases, for a total of 1979 positive cases, and a total of 33 dead
- 3 more deaths have occurred at the Ontario nursing home, bring the total number of deaths from 9 yesterday to 12 today (plus the wife of one resident who also died = 13 deaths).
- BC is in third place with 1013 positive cases; 5 people in the province died.

- Coronavirus growth has flattened in the Czech Republic after the government made masks compulsory 2 weeks ago. People partook in a massive country-wide community initiative to create and wear home-made masks. Czech went from 0 masks to near 100% in 10 days.

- in Italy, a national day of mourning to remember those who have died. Cases are levelling off and officials are hoping there will soon be a decline in new cases, but today there were 837 new deaths.
- Spain reported a record jump in deaths: 849 new deaths due to the virus; the death toll is over 8000
- UK sees a spike in the last 24 hours: 313 new deaths, its highest surge. the death total is over 1700
- a small town in Welsh has been overrun by wild goats, who have taken advantage of the absence of humans on the streets to roam free
- a 12-year old girl from Belgium and a 13-year old boy in London have both died from the infection.
- a 108-year old woman, who survived the 1913 Spanish Flu, WW1 and WW2, has died from the infection.

- the TSX is down 21%, DOW down 23%, SP500 down 20% for Q1 of 2020

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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #46 on: April 01, 2020, 11:42:11 AM »

Hey CJ,  I actually thought your post was funny.  As you said, in such grim times, a bit of black humor and a warped look at how humanity responds to crisis can be a sigh of relief.  We still need our booze no matter what!  :u:

...well not me, I don't drink.  Plastic is my crack.  :rollfloorlaffsmiley:

Stay safe and play safe, everyone. For you MOC collectors, it's the nigh-end of the world, so crack open those minty packaged toys of yours (sitting in boxes to prevent exposure to daylight) and just play with them finally...  :)

edit: let me add my own link of levity, as I think this family does an amazing capturing the humor in all of this darkness by singing their version of Les Miserables complete with modified lyrics.  It's very uplifting and really made me smile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf4XxnL4lPk



« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 11:57:37 AM by napseeker »
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jjreason

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #47 on: April 01, 2020, 01:56:26 PM »

Nap - the US death total has surpassed China's "admitted" total. There are serious concerns from the rest of the world that they downplayed the extent of their outbreak to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they let it get so out of hand. I would suspect MANY more Chinese citizens were lost and that we'll never know the total.  :'(

It's absolutely shameful & borderline criminal to hide these types of things from the rest of the world - there is a chance the coping strategies put in place elsewhere would have been more stringent if they had been honest from the start.
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Canadian Jedi

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #48 on: April 01, 2020, 05:08:07 PM »

jjreason , I agree with you .  China has been completely understating their numbers .  What I am hearing from friends and family now is that they are concerned that a depression could set in.  The truth I believe is many businesses are not going to survive this . Huge changes are going to happen as result of this .  It is obvious that US needs a national health care solution . 1000’s are going to die because they don’t .
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2020, 04:01:38 AM »

Nap - the US death total has surpassed China's "admitted" total. There are serious concerns from the rest of the world that they downplayed the extent of their outbreak to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they let it get so out of hand. I would suspect MANY more Chinese citizens were lost and that we'll never know the total.  :'(

Actually I agree with you about this, but I can only report what's showing up on the news.  I also think other less democratic countries are underreporting as well e.g. Russia, because it would look bad on Putin if hundreds of thousands of his people died under his leadership.   And then there are places like India which have a tough task just doing a proper census at the best of times... we're not going to learn the full extent of this tragedy until probably many many years after it is over (when we've moved on to COVID-22!)

Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but keeping a careful watch on this is really emotionally draining. I'm taking a bit of a break from reporting this stuff to care for my own mental health.  The stories out of New York are particularly depressing, the level of desperation and needless suffering of the elderly (and those here in Ontario who've also died recently at the nursing homes).

I also seem to have a cough that is getting worse, but oddly enough not because of COVID. It only seems to appear when I'm sitting in my room, on my desktop computer. Once I walk into the living room or any other part of my home, it goes away... I thought it might be all the dust I'm inhaling (let's just say I have a lot of toy boxes and plastic bins) but even after vacuuming and wiping, the cough persists.  I've never been confined to my own room for almost 3 consecutive weeks so it really may be exposing me to stuff that isn't so healthy... possibly fumes from my very old monitor or equally old computer. Who knows, but until I isolate the cause I'm actually sitting elsewhere and avoiding my computer... so yes, I'm self-isolating from my computer too now. Yeeesh. 
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jjreason

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #50 on: April 02, 2020, 07:19:17 AM »

It's tough on a person. We're lucky to live in the age of the internet so at least we can commiserate. My apartment in Regina is only a couple of hundred square feet & I stay down here for days at a time. Things have helped me feel better about the whole & pass the time have included the following:

- taking a shower & "getting ready for work" even though I'm not going

- getting outside when it's sunny for fresh air & to circulate the blood

- video games, comics, movies & internet chat boards (ie the same things I've found fun for the big part of my life)

We can & we will get through this. Try to stay strong & healthy by staying home folks.  :luke:
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #51 on: April 02, 2020, 11:18:37 AM »

Against my own advice, I'm going to post this news tidbit. All I could say when I read it, was: "Perfect."

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/austin-spring-breakers-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

Quote
Dozens of spring breakers from Texas boarded a plane for fun and came home with coronavirus.
About 70 people in their 20s chartered a plane from Austin, Texas, to Mexico for spring break two weeks ago. They went against the advice of White House officials who asked that people avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 and nonessential air travel.

Now 44 of those people have tested positive for coronavirus -- all of them University of Texas at Austin students, a university spokesman told CNN on Wednesday.

An elected official had a blunt message for the spring breakers.
"Quit being an a**," Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen told CNN affiliate KXAN.

AND: speaking of Putin being a liar. Perfect example, cited from Twitter to dispel any notion of him being "generous" during this outbreak:

Quote
To counter the tidal wave of Russian state propaganda and troll farm activity yesterday about Putin’s “benevolence” of sending a planeload of medical supplies to New York, the US government confirms the supplies were NOT gifts, but were purchased by the US

https://www.state.gov/u-s-purchase-of-needed-supplies-from-russia/



« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 11:23:22 AM by napseeker »
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skywalker1973

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #52 on: April 02, 2020, 02:16:43 PM »


Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but keeping a careful watch on this is really emotionally draining. I'm taking a bit of a break from reporting this stuff to care for my own mental health. 

Hey napseeker I know exactly how you feel - you read and watch the news because you want to stay informed and at the same time all of it is so overwhelmingly negative.  Taking a break from it is essential, because after a certain point when we're doing our social distancing part and being safe, there's not much more that can actually be done.  Take care of yourself and your family and hang in there!
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #53 on: April 03, 2020, 11:22:41 AM »

Thanks skywalker1973, my best wishes to you and your family as well! 

The bright side to any of this is that we're doing better than the US and I hope as news spreads about how bad it gets down there, that this will convince anyone else still crazy enough to disregard the distancing rules (and risk a $5000 fine here in Ontario) to obey. 

My sympathies go to the New York nurse who spoke at a press conference yesterday. Her words were so chilling that I had to jot them down, she said volumes about the lack of protective medical equipment for nurses and doctors to wear:

"Everyday when I go to work, I feel like a sheep going to slaughter. My colleagues and I are writing our last wills and testament. I am 28 years old."

At the start of March, the US positive cases to Canadian were 10 to 1 (which makes sense give the size of the US) and now it is 22 to 1.  Trump ordered 3M not to send Canada any more of those N-95 face masks since obviously they want to now focus on protecting their own citizens, although this will likely spark a chain reaction of other countries refusing to export their medical equipment to if the US keeps doing this.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/3m-pushes-back-trump-administration-142053191.html

EDIT: so of course an hour after I write in my post "hey at least we're doing better than the US", the Ontario government gives a press conference with a chart that shows Ontario basically tracking the SAME as the US.  British Columbia is doing better than Ontario.



It doesn't help that out of all the Canadian provinces, Ontario has the lowest rate of testing.




Stay safe everyone.

« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 12:45:33 PM by napseeker »
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #54 on: April 04, 2020, 08:34:19 AM »

In case people here know someone who thinks that because they are under age 50 that they are safe from the virus... show them this chart from the Apr 1st CBC National show:



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jjreason

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #55 on: April 04, 2020, 09:10:10 PM »

Looking forward to hearing the number of confirmed new infections is lower than it was the day before.
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Canadian Jedi

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #56 on: April 05, 2020, 08:48:38 AM »

I read this and thought it was worth passing on to you guys.

Dear Moore Park Friends and Neighbours,
 
I am Mona Loutfy at 103 Rose Park Drive and an infectious diseases specialist at Women’s College Hospital. I was a frontline physician during the SARS outbreak in 2003 and thought it would be helpful to send my neighbours an email to give you my take on COVID-19 and provide you with my predictions to alleviate anxieties.
 
Yes, it is true – we are experiencing a pandemic – this is the real deal – this is the one we have been talking about for the past couple of decades. The best thing you can do is to stay calm and stay strong and follow what the Toronto, Ontario and Canadian governments and public health agencies are telling us to do.
 
I have to say that Prime Minister Trudeau and our Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, Premier Doug Ford and Minister Christine Elliott and Mayor John Tory and Toronto Medical Health Officer, Dr. Eileen de Valla have been doing an excellent job. They instituted physical isolation a week before many other countries and because of that we will fare better than other parts of the globe.
 
I thought it would be useful to map out my predictions of what to expect in the coming weeks and months.
 
These are my personal predictions based on my expertise and experience with SARS. The case load is to remain high for the next 2-4 weeks in Canada. Don’t be scared if you hear about 500-2000 cases of COVID-19 a day in Canada over the month of April; that will equate to 15,000-60,000 new cases overall in April. There are likely 3-4 times that number of undiagnosed cases that we would have had in Canada. Of reported cases, the death rate has been about 1%, so that will be 150-600 deaths in Canada in the month of April. Other localities, namely South Korea and Washington State only saw drops in their cases after 4 weeks of instituting physical/social distancing.  And so by the end of April and in May, we should see the case numbers start to go down
 
My prediction is that the physical distancing will need to go on for a minimum of 2 months; therefore for the entire month of April and likely the entire month of May. Why is the physical distancing so important? We want to keep the case load low to reduce the risk to those older than 70 years of age and with other diseases as these are the people who end up sick and in hospital and die. We want to prevent a surge of hospital admissions and ICU admissions – this is essential to the orderly delivery of care without overwhelming the entire system.
 
Once physical distancing starts to soften, it is my belief that wearing ear loop/surgical masks around in public will become the norm for many months to prevent a second wave of transmission. Right now, we have manufacturing plants are transferring over to make masks and it is my prediction that we will be flooded with masks in a month – so I think we will have enough masks for everyone in the near future.
 
It is my prediction that I don’t think our children will be going back to school physically for the rest of the school year. Many schools are already using or setting up google classroom or equivalent. I hope that everyone is coping through having their children at home.
 
I send these predictions to let you know what to expect, so you are not worried when you see it in the news and to let you know that Canada is doing a very good job.
 
Again, the most important thing to do is to follow the Canadian and provincial guidance which include staying home as much as possible, only one person going to the grocery store from each household, either wear a mask or stay 2 metres away from others in public, and when you get home, wash your hands for 20 seconds.
 
If you want to help, here’s what can you do…..
 
1. Reach out to those that are elderly and have other diseases and see if they need help picking up groceries;
 
2. Order from restaurants in the neighbourhood to help those businesses;
 
3. and do all the things you are already doing like starting petitions, etc.
 
I hope this email has been helpful. Remember, we are a smart and strong species and when you think through the knowledge we have about this virus, we will beat it.
 
Stay calm and strong.
 
 
Sincerely, Mona
 
Mona Loutfy, MD, FRCPC, MPH
Professor, Infectious Diseases Specialist & Clinical Researcher
Women's College Research Institute, Women's College Hospital, University of Toronto
 
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napseeker

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #57 on: April 05, 2020, 05:18:29 PM »

This story showed up in my twitter feed today.  Horrific description of what it's like to get COVID-19.  Anyone who reads this would be rightfully scared.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

Quote
“Reading about it in the news, I knew it was going to be bad, but we deal with the flu every year so I was thinking: Well, it’s probably not that much worse than the flu. But seeing patients with COVID-19 completely changed my perspective, and it’s a lot more frightening.”


Quote
"The lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be.

“It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.

“Normally, ARDS is something that happens over time as the lungs get more and more inflamed. But with this virus, it seems like it happens overnight. When you’re healthy, your lung is made up of little balloons. Like a tree is made out of a bunch of little leaves, the lung is made of little air sacs that are called the alveoli. When you breathe in, all of those little air sacs inflate, and they have capillaries in the walls, little blood vessels. The oxygen gets from the air in the lung into the blood so it can be carried around the body.

“Typically with ARDS, the lungs become inflamed. It’s like inflammation anywhere: If you have a burn on your arm, the skin around it turns red from additional blood flow. The body is sending it additional nutrients to heal. The problem is, when that happens in your lungs, fluid and extra blood starts going to the lungs. Viruses can injure cells in the walls of the alveoli, so the fluid leaks into the alveoli. A telltale sign of ARDS in an X-ray is what’s called ‘ground glass opacity,’ like an old-fashioned ground glass privacy window in a shower.

And lungs look that way because fluid is white on an X-ray, so the lung looks like white ground glass, or sometimes pure white, because the lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be.”

"This severity ... is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience ... or people who inhale caustic gas.


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jjreason

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #58 on: April 06, 2020, 10:34:57 PM »

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to be deteriorating quickly. I don't wish this on anyone & this would be a very sobering blow to the Brits (yes I know they don't all love him, but it would still feel very defeating I would imagine).
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bob

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Re: Outbreak! (Coronavirus discussion)
« Reply #59 on: April 07, 2020, 06:41:31 AM »

 Nice post Canadian Jedi. That sounds on point to me. we did start early and thats going to make a difference for sure.

 by the end of this week were suppose to have a better idea how its working. fingers crossed but im hopeful.

 stay healthy,keep your spirits high. f dying from this thing. no way!

 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 06:49:50 AM by bob »
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